Economists cautiously welcome US move to extend AGOA

Independent economic analyst, Professor Bonke Dumisa, says the US Congress House of Representatives’ vote to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a positive development for South Africa, but cautions that US President Donald Trump could still use executive powers to exclude the country.

AGOA, a trade programme enacted in 2000, aims to boost and diversify African trade with the US. It allows duty-free entry for a wide range of African products into America, with almost 40 sub-Saharan African countries benefiting from it.

Yesterday, the US House voted 340 to 54 in favour of extending the Act. However, the bill still requires Senate approval and the President’s signature to become law.

“Congress is dominated by the Democrats, who are mainly very positive towards South Africa, so it’s a step in the right direction. However, the very negative submission by Senator Kennedy may actually be seized upon by Donald Trump to pursue his negativity towards South Africa,” Dumisa pointed out.

“He may resort to his executive orders and just sign an executive order to say South Africa is totally excluded from AGOA. The irony of the whole thing is that you’ve got some Afrikaners who are permanently stationed in the US Capitol now. Solidarity, and what’s the other one? Yeah, who are permanently stationed there to push an agenda against South Africa.”

He also highlighted the irony that some groups lobbying against South Africa in the US could harm their own interests.

Efficient Group chief economist, Dawie Roodt, echoed Dumisa’s caution, saying while the extension is good news, South Africans should not celebrate too early.

Cross-border payments firm Verto also welcomed the House vote but warned that ongoing uncertainty is already affecting businesses.

“The House vote is a necessary milestone, but for the thousands of African SMEs that rely on these trade corridors, ‘almost’ is not enough. In our previous research on AGOA’s fragility, we highlighted that political uncertainty is a primary driver of currency volatility. When trade agreements hang in the balance, the South African Rand often bears the brunt, wiping out the thin margins of exporters far faster than any headline tariff could,” said James Booth, Head of Revenue at Verto.

Booth urged businesses not to wait for political clarity.

Meanwhile, the Economic Freedom Fighters say the AGOA extension highlights that the US is prioritising its own interests over those of African countries.

The EFF’s Statement on the US House Extension of AGOA

-The extension also comes at a time when the US is intensifying economic coercion in other areas of global politics, reinforcing that its “partnerships” are tactical, increasingly aggressive, and not rooted in mutual… pic.twitter.com/StUoKyUqDq

— Economic Freedom Fighters (@EFFSouthAfrica) January 13, 2026

“Regardless of the final outcome in the US Senate, the post-AGOA mindset must be one of diversification and digital resilience,” he added.

A big win for stronger U.S.–Africa economic ties today. Proud to see the House pass legislation to extend the AGOA trade program for three more years. It will create jobs, foster economic growth, and strengthen the bonds between the U.S. and our African partners.

Grateful to our… pic.twitter.com/q26nIxsMnn

— Rep. Terri A. Sewell (@RepTerriSewell) January 13, 2026

Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) and its members welcome the passage by the House of Representatives of the AGOA Extension Act (HR 6500) last night. CCA endorsed the introduction of this bill in December, noting that extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)… pic.twitter.com/97jnC3PpIt

— CorpCnclAfrica (@CorpCnclAfrica) January 13, 2026