Analyst says GNU will never be the same again

Political commentator, Goodenough Mashego, says while the Government of National Unity (GNU) may survive the ongoing budget impasse, it will never be whole again.

His words cut through the tension, suggesting that the rift caused by the passing of the contentious 2025/26 Fiscal Framework in Parliament last week will leave lasting scars for the coalition.

South Africans could possibly see VAT increase by 0.5% on the 1st of next month, while a further 0.5% hike is expected to kick in next year.

In a fiercely contested vote, the budget policy narrowly passed with 194 Members of Parliament voting in favour of the prosed national budget, while 182 stood in opposition, including the DA and FF Plus.

Mashego says the ANC has come to a stark realisation that they can still govern without the DA, while at the same time, the DA has been confronted with the fact that they may not be the kingmakers they thought they were.

As the talks to resolve the impasse continue, Mashego believes the DA will be better off as an opposition after the 2026 Local Government Elections (LGE).

He suggests that the DA might use the GNU as their currency for the upcoming polls.

“There is precedence to this, the National Party entered into a coalition with the ANC in 1994 and left in 1996, after a milestone of the passing of the constitution of the country. They stayed in to make sure that the Constitution that is going to come out will protect their interests. I think the DA might take its two years as well, it entered in 2024 and it will need to stay longer until 2026 after that it can leave because that is also going to play hard on the ANC’s elective conference in 2027,” he adds.

ANC secretary general, Fikile Mbalula, says they have set a five-day deadline to engage all political parties, including those that are not part of the GNU to address the current budget standoff.

Mbalula says they will also meet with the DA over its conduct after the blue party approached the court in a bid to overturn the passing of the fiscal framework.

“We are now deeply concerned by the conduct of the DA whose participation in the GNU has been marred by double dealing, negotiating and acting in bad faith and open disdain for transformation. The DA has simultaneously acted as an opposition force, opposing the Bela Act, the NHI and the Land expropriation amendment. It seeks to divide the government and confuse the public and claim credit without assuming responsibility,” Mbalula told reporters when briefing the media on the outcomes of the ANC’s National Working Committee meeting.

Mbalula added that the design of a GNU is complex and requires a high level of political maturity and discipline.

“We understood that it was never going to be an easy journey considering it is made up of role players opposed to us ideologically. The NWC is navigating the process of the budget impasse in the context of the GNU and will make it a point that it succeeds.”

The DA on the other hand doesn’t seem ready to give up.

Party leader, John Steenhuisen, says they won’t simply walk away from the GNU and the party is waiting for the ANC’s call to the negotiations aimed at finding a way forward.

“During the course of last week we exchanged a document with the ANC on the basis that there would be a document provided to us, we are still waiting to hear back on that particular document. We think we’ve got a great plan to grow the economy and great jobs, that is in line with the medium term development plan and in fact in line with much of the things that the ANC says it stands for.” Written by Lindiwe Mpanza